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Championship Weekend and The College Football Rankings thru 12/1/2024

Sports Are Dumb

Honestly, it took all week for my soul to re-enter my body after Georgia Tech's heartwrenching loss to Georgia in the annual Clean Old Fashioned Hate rivalry. I don't want to relive it too much, but it was objectively a classic - so since I have been offering full service all season, le sigh:




On the bright side, in futbol (note the spelling), Liverpool dispatched of a worn down Manchester City with appropriately little drama - so that was fun. Fandom is pain - alas I am hooked.


This Week's Rankings

This is the last ranking before Championship Week. Now, the rankings did not punish Ohio State for the loss to Michigan - certainly not to the degree that karma did - while Michigan was not good, they also are 7-5 against a hard schedule, and Ohio State other wins (Penn State, Indiana) keep looking better and better. Georgia has control of its fate, but there is little doubt that surviving against Georgia Tech was essential for its ability to make the field as an at-large. So, how did the rankings get shaken up?




Shaking this into the tournament field:

  • Automatics: Oregon (1), Texas (2), SMU (3), Boise State (4), Iowa State (10)

  • At Larges: Ohio State (5), Notre Dame (6), Penn State (7), Indiana (8), Georgia (9), Miami-FL (11), Alabama (12)

  • Bubble: Tennessee, South Carolina, Louisville, Ole Miss


The College Football Playoff Committee Looks Like

  • Automatics: Oregon (1), Texas (2), SMU (3), Boise State (4), Arizona State (12)

  • At Larges: Penn State (5), Notre Dame (6), Georgia (7), Ohio State (8), Tennessee (9), Indiana (10), Alabama (11)

  • Bubble: Miami-FL, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Iowa State


As noted in the introduction, what to do with Ohio State's loss was going to be interesting, I probably agree with the committee more, but the idea that Ohio State has not ruined its resume all that much seems fair.


A Few Thoughts on Championship Weekend Scenarios:

  • The ACC probably wants Boise State to lose tonights Mountain West Championship. If Clemson wins, that is likely the only way for SMU to hang on as an at-large (depending on the score).

  • If Boise State loses, does it get pushed out of the Top 12? Given how the CFP Committee has acted, I'd say yes. What becomes interesting is what happens if Army wins the AAC championship. Does that move Army into the G5 slot?

  • The CFP field and bowls are set after this weekend, but if Army is in the driver's seat for the G5 slot, their season is not actually over! Does the committee wait for the Army-Navy game?

  • Another interesting question is what happens to the 4th bye if Clemson wins and Boise State loses? Does Clemson hop over the Big 12 champion?

  • The Allstate Playoff Predictor in all these cases is inherently funny. After all, we have a n=0 sample size for this tournament. Any playoff percentages seem even less scientific than normal.







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