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The National Zoo and Re-Experiencing

Living in the National Capital region for a billion years, I do certainly get spoiled and cynical about what the city offers. For years, I would go into the office every day in very close promiximity to the National Mall, but so much of the time I just felt like it was really tour groups just getting in the way with their matching T-shirts and such. (one of these occasions was actually a group from my old middle school, but I couldn't think of a way to interrupt the kids without throwing everything off,) The Smithsonian itself just becomes places to go when I am entertaining out-of-towners. Of course this time we WERE meeting up with out of towners - college friend of the life partner and her family - so the National Zoo felt like a perfect fit.


Washington DC ruined museums for me in a lot of ways. With all of the museums in the National Mall area, and the National Zoo all being free to enter, it has always been hard for me to go to even good museums like the New England Aquarium without thinking that it feels like a ripoff having to pay more than zero dollars. "Like, this costs money??" This is a really priveleged view to have of course, but such is the charm.


Much to the children's chagrin, the zoo was panda free - well, at least it was Sunday. But there was still plenty around. Much of the fun came from the addition of cheeky Halloween decorations preparing for the Boo at the Zoo. The elephants were out in full force, as was the bird house. One of the fun features of the bird house is that the birds are not separated from the viewers - it could poop on you, though no prizes are awarded if that happens. The giant cat section - all the way and the end/bottom of the zoo - was appropriately awesome. We also explored the small mammals section. The life partner's friend was grossed out a bit by the naked mole rats - studying at a seminary, I guess she was not ready for that level of nudity.


But the memory of the day for me - as is often with these things with young ones - was seeing how all these kids had wide eyed views of the animals. I think of how they stopped at EVERY - SINGLE - MISTING station, even if it was not actually cold outside. I think of how excited my youngest was just riding the Metro and counting the stops and bounding looking for the right escalator. Well - the train ride, there is another thing I just take for granted.


A Big College Football Weekend

Week 7 was punctuated by the biggest game of the year to date, the Instant Classic between Ohio State and Oregon. My Ohio State correspondent was despondent about the officiating, which was decidedly odd and all over the map. (the final Offensive Pass Interference being an appropriate final straw) But more than anything, this was a game where Oregon was able to make one big play after another - not just clutch but explosive. Ohio State seemed iike the better team down to down, but Oregon got away from them enough and frequently enough to nose it out. Put another way - two good teams, let's see this again. The rankings as you imagine have a new #1.



Notes:

  • To refrain from last week, I don't think BYU is the 3rd best team in the country, but that win against Kansas State counts. They likely get a bye if the season ended today.

  • Clemson is probably better than their record - but outside of Georgia, the record is thin-ish. They were hurt by a tweak I made to the Strength of Schedule algorithm.

  • The SoS numbers changed. Instead of using Air Force as a reference team, I used Excel Solver to figure out what a team's rating would be to go .500 if they played every team. So the SoS rank is based on how you'd expect this imaginary .500 team would do.

  • Next week it's back to the SEC for the titan clash - Georgia at Texas.

  • The Army-Navy AAC title game lives!

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Another year, another heartfelt attempt to start writing more regularly. But maybe this time it will stick. Certainly, sitting in the bleachers while my sweetie is doing laps, barracudas and various other maneuvers a lot of stuff wanders through my noggin. Hopefully the meditative space poolside will lead to more ideas, responses whatever. What I CAN say is that I am still ranking college football teams, and so how does 2024 look through 6 weeks?


The College Football Rankings for 2024

I have been doing college football rankings for a while. I’ve tinkered with the formula over the years, but I think I’ve landed on something pretty stable. Put simply, I wanted to make a college football ranking which would be systematic, objective and resume based. One of my real frustrations with how the sport does its business is how so often, teams exist as beauty pageant contestants. Notions of “best” vs “most deserving” permeate, though the two criteria are quite different.


Which team is “the best” is highly subjective of course. But it’s also amorphous, and so often the College Football Playof Committee has abandoned principles almost every year to satisfy what I can only surmise as “vibes”. Can a team have two losses and be better than an unbeaten team? Of course it can. Alabama was like that in 2022. But losses have to matter. Winning your league has to matter. Why do we play the season after all? In the other sports, the NCAA selection process can be weird, but it is largely consistent. College football is much more challenging, with many many fewer games - but it should be more transparent at least. (Play Fanfare) Here is where I come in.


The Inspiration

In previous years, I had used a computer algorithm based on the Bradley-Terry method to rank the teams. This was fine as far as it goes, but with so few games the error bars were high. The algorithm resulted in a lot of convariance based on certain nonconference results. It worked as a component, but it felt incomplete. So I looked to the NCAA Pairwise Comparison framework used for selecting college hockey teams. This framework compared all the teams with each other in terms of computer rating (RPI), head to head and record against common opponents. The school that “won” the most comparisons were ranked the highest.


The Application

To come up with the ranking, I compare teams across 4 dimensions:

  1. Bradley-Terry ranking. I use a slightly modified version which assigns 0.8 wins to a team for winning the game and up to a 125% modifier based on margin of victory. (using a log-formula so there are diminishing marginal returns) The model also incorporates home field advantage. Having a better Bradley-Terry ranking is worth 1 comparison point.

  2. Head to Head record. I give this pretty large emphasis. Winning a head to head match is worth 1.5 comparison point. In the unlikely event there is a rematch between two teams, a sweep could be worth 3 comparison points.

  3. Common opponents. If a team has a better record against common opponents than another, it is worth a comparison point.

  4. League champion. For now, this goes to the highest rated (see #1) team with the fewest number of conference losses. This is another comparison point.


After that, we sum up the comparison points and we get a head-to-head pairwise “win”. I make similar comparisons across all of the FBS teams, with a category called “Other” for all non-FBS opponents. Ties are counted as 0.5 wins. Ties are broken by using the Bradley-Terry ranking.


The First Rankings

I have moved the rankings to Google Docs, so you can see the whole file if you want. But here is the summary.




Notes

  • Personally, I have a hard time believing the SEC will remain as poor as they look so far. But Alabama's shocking lost at Vanderbilt has serious ripple effects, knocking down Georgia and knocking down Clemson. These things will reset I think as more games are played.

  • Army and Navy leading the AAC is fascinating right now. If they continue to dominate the league, they will meet in the AAC championship game the week before the annual Army-Navy game. This would be a pretty wild result.

  • Boise State is a bit high for my tastes. That said, with their single loss being a close game at Alabama, and right now Washington State's resume looking pretty darn good, I get it.

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sk7326

Updated: Oct 9

Honestly, I have not been writing enough - and this certainly doesn't really qualify. But I did hit the Big 4-6 last week, but I was pretty occupado in a way I can't fully describe quite yet. (is that a spoiler?) But in the meantime, I did get to listen to the 2024 entry in the list of every song that was #1 on the Hot 100 on my birthday. This year's entry - "Lovin On Me" by Jack Harlow is notably bad. Now, I am not 100% sure if his look drives me to hate the song, but this man can only report on how he feels.


Honestly, if he cares this little in the video and rapping style, I have a hard time caring for it either. But where does this gem fit in with the other 45 songs? NOTE I considered these fresh, and I feel more conviction about the categories/tiers than the rankings.


CATEGORY 1: The Suck

46. "Lovin On Me" by Jack Harlow (2024)

45. "All for Love" by Bryan Adams, Sting and Rod Stewart (1994)

44. "Bad and Bougee" by Migos w/ L'il Uzi Vert (2017)

43. "One Sweet Day" by Mariah Carey and Boyz II Men (1996)

42. "On Bended Knee" by Boyz II Men (1995)

41. "The First Time" by Surface (1991)

40. "How am I Supposed to Live Without You" by Michael Bolton (1990)


CATEGORY 2: Honestly, I Barely Remember These

39. "Grillz" by Nelly (2006)

38. "Have You Ever" by Brandy (1999)

37. "Truly Madly Deeply" by Savage Garden (1998)

36. "Unbreak My Heart" by Toni Braxton (1997)

35. "Sorry" by Justin Bieber (2016)

34. "Let Me Love You" by Mario (2005)

33. "The Box" by Roddy Rich (2020)

32. "Perfect" by Ed Sheeran (2018)

31. "Easy on Me" by Adele (2022)

30. "Without Me" by Halsey (2019)

29. "Tik Tok" by Ke$ha (2010)

28. "That's What Friends Are For" by Dionne Warwick and Friends (1986)

27. "U Got It Bad" by Usher (2002)

26. "Baby Come Back" by Player (1978)

25. "All 4 Love" by Color Me Badd (1992)


CATEGORY 3: I Can Work With This

24. "Independent Women" by Destiny's Child (2001)

23. "Physical" by Olivia Newton John (1982)

22. "Low" by Flo Rida (2008)

21. "At This Moment" by Billy Vera and the Beaters (1987)

20. "Timber" by Pitbull (2014)

19. "Driver's License" by Olivia Rodrigo (2021)

18. "Anti-Hero" by Taylor Swift (2023)

17. "I Will Always Love You" by Whitney Houston (1993)

16. "Just Dance" by Lady Gaga (2009)

15. "What a Girl Wants" by Christina Aguileta (2000)

14. "The Way You Make Me Feel" by Michael Jackson (1988)

13. "We Found Love" by Rihanna (2012)

12. "Like a Virgin" by Madonna (1985)


CATEGORY 4: Just Good

11. "Two Hearts" by Phil Collins (1989)

10. "Irreplaceable" by Beyonce (2007)

9. "Grenade" by Bruno Mars (2011)

8. "Uptown Funk" by Mark Ronson f/ Bruno Mars (2015)

7. "Down Under" by Men At Work (1983)

6. "(Just Like) Starting Over" by John Lennon (1981)

5. "Owner of a Lonely Heart" by Yes (1984)

4. "Rock With You" by Michael Jackson (1980)

3. "Le Freak" by Chic (1979)

2. "Lose Yourself" by Eminem (2003)

1. "Hey Ya" by Outkast (2004)












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